The 2024 MLB Draft is less than two weeks away. The three day, 20-round event will take place in Texas, the home of this year’s All-Star Game festivities. As the draft gets closer, there is more buzz connecting certain prospects with specific teams.
It is important to remember that unlike the NFL, NBA and NHL drafts, the MLB version ends up not always being just purely best player available, as there are financials involved in the bonus pool system. Teams often evaluate prospects in tiers, which allows them to group players and determine the best pick and value for their franchises.
To explain the bonus pool system: Each selection in the top 10 rounds is assigned a slot value and the sum of each team’s 10 rounds of picks’ values is their bonus pool for the draft. One other caveat is that any amount over $150,000 issued to a player picked beyond the 10th round counts toward each team’s pool.
Teams may distribute that money however they wish, and there are already rumors of some teams planning to go under-slot in the first round to potentially over-slot a falling high school talent beyond the first round. The Mets did this back in 2019 with Matt Allan.
Here is my mock draft 2.0. Enjoy!
1. Guardians – SS/2B JJ Wetherholt, West Virginia
It could be posturing, but there is word that the Guardians are looking to save money to be aggressive beyond round one for high school pitching. Wetherholt may cut a deal because if he doesn’t go No. 1, he may not go until No. 4 or No. 5 at earliest. Could Cleveland offer somewhere between No. 3 and No. 4 slot and save $2 million while getting a player they really like?
2. Reds – 2B Travis Bazzana, Oregon State
Bazzana may be less motivated than Wetherholt would be to take a deal at No. 1, as most believe his floor is No. 4. I have heard the Reds connected primarily to college bats here and I don’t believe they are looking to cut a big discount.
3. Rockies – OF Charlie Condon, Georgia
There has been a lot of buzz connecting the Rockies to Wake Forest right-hander Chase Burns, and that is still very possible. However, the trickle effect of Wetherholt going No. 1 has possibly the top player in the class in Condon sitting here. And the Rockies have done a good job in the last few years of taking the player who falls in their lap in the first round.
4. Athletics – 1B Jac Caglianone, Florida
This is the high point for Wake Forest first baseman Nick Kurtz if Oakland is looking to cut a deal. It sounds like Caglianone isn’t going to fall out of the top 5 and could go as high as No. 2.
5. White Sox – OF Konnor Griffin, Jackson Prep HS (MS)
One of the big questions heading into the draft is when the first high school player will come off the board. If the top two high school hitters Griffin or California high school shortstop Bryce Rainer don’t go here, neither likely goes in the top 8. So, there is a potential for the White Sox to save some slot money here. Griffin may have the best overall tools in the class, but there will need to be swing adjustments in pro ball.
6. Royals – RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest
I believe Texas A&M outfielder Braden Montgomery could be in play here, but word has been pretty loud on the Royals focusing on college pitching with this pick. There are two options this high in Burns and Hagen Smith of Arkansas.
7. Cardinals – OF Braden Montgomery, Texas A&M
Montgomery could go as high as No. 4, but he is here for the Cardinals. He broke his ankle in the NCAA Super Regionals, but there didn’t appear to be long-term damage, so his draft stock shouldn't fall too much.
8. Angels – LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas
The Angels have prioritized getting prospects who can get to the majors very quickly over the last couple of drafts. Smith is the type of pitcher who could potentially have a short stay in the minor leagues. Don’t discount an under-slot deal with Florida State outfielder James Tibbs III.
9. Pirates – 1B Nick Kurtz, Wake Forest
In baseball you never draft for need, but the Pirates are a team that feels close to making that big jump on the backs of their young, premium pitching. Getting an advanced college bat like Kurtz could make a quick difference. Tibbs is another name who could be in play here.
10. Nationals – SS Bryce Rainer, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA)
The Nats typically hunt upside. Throughout the process, they have been heavily linked to Rainer and Griffin. One scout told me he’d be surprised if the Nationals did not end up with one of those two, with a preference for Griffin.
11. Tigers – LHP Cam Caminiti, Saguaro HS (AZ)
If Kurtz or Rainer slide outside of the top 10, I think the Tigers pounce. Since that did not happen in this scenario, there has been strong buzz that they have been all over Caminiti this spring. It sounds as if Caminiti is going to end up in the top 15 and be the first high school arm off the board.
12. Red Sox – 2B Christian Moore, Tennessee
Moore was the star of the College World Series champion Tennessee Volunteers. I have heard the Red Sox mostly linked to college bats, and Moore has the swagger and confidence necessary to thrive in a big market.
13. Giants – RHP Trey Yesavage, East Carolina
Two scouts told me the Giants are hoping for Caminiti. He isn’t available in this scenario, so they take the third college pitcher in the class, who outdueled Burns to eliminate Wake Forest in the NCAA Regionals.
14. Cubs – OF James Tibbs III, Florida State
Tibbs has long been looked at as the under-slot option in the back of the top 10. He could go anywhere from No. 8 to the mid-teens.
15. Mariners – SS/OF Seaver King, Wake Forest
Mariners are a wild card and could be a team to cut a deal with someone like Florida high school shortstop Kellon Lindsay or Mississippi State switch pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje. I believe they’d also be interested in the bat speed and exit velocities that King brings to the table.
16. Marlins – OF Carson Benge, Oklahoma State
Benge looks to be an option between here and the early 20s, including the Mets. He needs some swing adjustments in pro ball, but is a good athlete who hits the ball hard and has a strong arm (he was a two-way player in college and up to 96 mph on the radar gun from the mound).
17. Brewers – OF Vance Honeycutt, North Carolina
I believe this is the earliest spot Honeycutt would come off the board, and the Brewers tend to like up-the-middle athletes. Despite the strikeout issues, I believe the Mets are very interested in Honeycutt, but in this scenario they don’t have the chance to consider him.
18. Rays – 3B Cam Smith, Florida State
Smith is an option as high as No. 12 and is expected to be off the board in the teens. The Rays are often a team that isn’t afraid to take a player who is publicly ranked much lower than their selection, but here they take a "falling" Smith.
19. Mets – 3B Tommy White, LSU
As we get closer to the draft, I have heard the Mets connected to additional players who could be in consideration here. Though that list is primarily college hitters like King, Honeycutt, Benge, and Mississippi State outfielder Dakota Jordan, I have also heard some interest in Iowa right-hander Brody Brecht and a couple of high school players in Lindsay and Elk City, Oklahoma left-hander Kash Mayfield.
White, or "Tommy Tanks" as he’s known, received national notoriety when he hit 27 home runs in 55 games as a true freshman at North Carolina State. He transferred to LSU where he, along with last year’s No. 2 overall pick Dylan Crews, were two of the biggest factors in LSU winning the College World Series. He has been the type of player who -- at least in college -- would step up when the lights were the brightest.
Though 2024 was White’s worst college season, he still slashed .330/.401/.638 (1.019 OPS) with 24 home runs and 70 RBI in 66 games. He trimmed his strikeout percentage to 12 percent while maintaining a walk rate of 8.6 percent. He has bat speed and power to all fields that could result in 25+ home run potential at the next level.
The defensive questions are real, as he has played third base the last two years despite being a well below average athlete. He did make some strides defensively at third this year, and I would expect a pro team to start his career as a third baseman. But most scouts believe he is a long-term first baseman.
If White ends up at first base, that will require the bat to really reach its potential. In a draft lacking depth in up-the-middle athletes in the first round, this scenario has the Mets going for a potential middle-of-the-order bat with some defensive questions.
